Case Keenum’s First Start Since 2023 Creates a Monday Night Turnover Angle

Keenum’s most recent NFL starts came late in the 2023 season after Houston needed him to fill in for C.J. Stroud. Against Tennessee, Keenum threw for 229 yards with one touchdown and one interception. A week later against Cleveland, he finished 11-of-17 for only 62 yards while throwing two interceptions before being replaced. NFL
That means his last two NFL starts produced an interception in both games, with three total picks on just 53 attempts.

The sample is obviously old and small, so it cannot carry the handicap by itself. But it matters when the current situation again asks Keenum to step into an offense he has not been operating as the regular starter and immediately manage a full NFL game.

Chicago has already dealt with substantial pressure
The Bears’ quarterbacks have been pressured on roughly one-third of their dropbacks through the opening two weeks. Caleb Williams was pressured on 33.8% of his dropbacks, while Chicago’s combined quarterback pressure rate sits at 33.3%.

That matters more for Keenum than pure sack totals.

Pressure creates hurried reads, late throws and opportunities for underneath defenders to close passing windows. Keenum does not provide Williams’ mobility when protection breaks down, so Chicago loses one of the escape mechanisms it normally has when the pocket deteriorates.

The Bears can try to protect him with D’Andre Swift, Kyle Monangai, play action and quick throws, and I expect that to be part of the plan. But Philadelphia only needs to create a few obvious passing downs before the conditions change.

Philadelphia does not need to have been collecting interceptions already

There is an important piece of evidence working against the bet: Philadelphia has not recorded an interception through its first two games. Washington and Tennessee combined for 54 pass attempts against the Eagles without throwing one.

I actually prefer acknowledging that rather than pretending Philadelphia has been a takeaway machine. This play is not based on chasing a defense that already has five interceptions.

Turnovers are volatile. Philadelphia can play sound coverage, affect throws and still finish a two-game sample without a pick. The bet is that introducing Keenum into that environment creates a materially different quarterback risk than the Eagles faced during the first two weeks.

The secondary still includes Cooper DeJean, Quinyon Mitchell and a Vic Fangio structure designed to force quarterbacks to diagnose coverage after the snap. Behind them, Philadelphia has Jalen Carter, Nolan Smith Jr. and a front capable of reducing the time available to make those decisions. Fangio remains the Eagles’ defensive coordinator in 2026.

The game script can eventually work in our favor

Chicago would probably prefer to make this a D’Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai game rather than asking Keenum to throw 40 times. The Bears have rushed extremely well to begin the year, with Swift and Monangai combining for 316 yards through two games.

That is the clearest way Chicago can keep the interception risk down: run efficiently, stay on schedule and keep Keenum in manageable down-and-distance situations.

The problem is that a game plan does not control the scoreboard.

If Philadelphia gets a lead, Chicago eventually has to open the offense. A quarterback averaging around 30-plus attempts gives us substantially more opportunities than one being protected behind 22 or 24 throws, and the current spread makes a trailing second-half Bears script entirely plausible.

Weather should not be part of the case. Conditions at Soldier Field are expected to be mild, with temperatures around the mid-60s, light wind and little precipitation risk. There is no need to manufacture a weather angle here.

The decision

Case Keenum to Throw an Interception (-130) 1u

The price is the key. At -130, we need 56.5%, and I land in the 61–62% range for at least one Keenum interception. That gives us a fair price around -160, with enough room to justify the full unit.

Keenum has 51 career interceptions, threw three across his last two starts, has not started a regular-season game since 2023 and now steps into a matchup where Chicago’s quarterbacks have already faced pressure on roughly one-third of their dropbacks. We do not need Philadelphia to dominate the game or Keenum to implode. We need one mistake over four quarters.

Playable range: I would play Keenum to throw an interception through -140. At that number, the edge remains strong enough for the way I price the prop. Once the market gets to -145 or worse, I would rather pass than chase.

Risk check:

There are three legitimate concerns.

First, Philadelphia has zero interceptions through two games, so there is no current-season takeaway trend supporting us. Second, Keenum actually looked comfortable during the preseason, completing 25 of 40 passes with two touchdowns and zero interceptions across three appearances. Finally, Chicago knows exactly what it has at quarterback and can build a conservative game plan around its running backs and short passing game.

Keenum also received the bulk of the first-team work while Williams and Bagent were unavailable during the week. This is not a quarterback being told five minutes before kickoff that he has to play; Chicago has had time to prepare him.

Those factors keep me from pushing the price much further than -140.

Pass point
If Keenum does not start as expected, there is no play. Bagent clearing concussion protocol creates at least some late uncertainty, so the wager is specifically tied to Keenum being Chicago’s starter. NFL Network reported Monday that Keenum is expected to get the start, but Chicago’s own earlier injury updates had left the decision between Keenum and Bagent.

That is the angle Monday night: one mistake, four quarters, and a quarterback making his first regular-season start since 2023.

Sep 14, 2026·7 min