Sunday Night Football Receiver Props: Fading Pat Bryant and Davante Adams

That does not make the under automatic, especially with Nacua unlikely to play. It does show that last week’s eight catches should not immediately reset Adams’ normal reception expectation into the six-plus range, particularly against a secondary built around one of football’s premier coverage corners.

The matchup evidence

Bryant’s routes are not translating into targets

Denver has plenty of receiving options, and the hierarchy became clearer against Jacksonville. Waddle accounted for a 34% target share and 56% of the Broncos’ air yards in Week 2, while Sutton led the team with an 84% route share. Bryant ran plenty of routes himself, but his one target represented just 3% of Denver’s passing opportunities.

That is the central case for the under. Bryant does not necessarily have to leave the field for this bet to win. He can play 60-plus percent of the snaps again and still remain fourth or fifth in the target progression behind Waddle, Sutton, Denver’s tight ends and potentially Marvin Mims Jr.

Mims is officially questionable, but he returned to practice during the week after missing Week 2 and remained limited through the final report. Even if he is not ready for a full workload, his possible return adds another player capable of taking designed touches and passing-game opportunities from Bryant. Denver Broncos
Bryant’s rookie season also shows that his reception ceiling can be volatile. He finished 2025 with 31 catches in 15 appearances, and his production was often driven by a few higher-volume games rather than a consistently heavy weekly role.

At 2.5, we are betting against Denver suddenly making him one of the central pieces of the passing game. At +110, I am willing to make that bet.

Adams faces the toughest corner on Denver’s roster

Adams is coming off the opposite type of game. With Nacua unavailable Monday night, Matthew Stafford targeted Adams 10 times, and the veteran converted eight of them into 195 yards and two touchdowns. Seven of Adams’ eight downfield targets were completed for 191 yards, illustrating just how destructive he can still be when Stafford repeatedly gives him chances vertically.

Denver is specifically built to make those throws more difficult.

Patrick Surtain II has not allowed a downfield reception on his last 213 coverage snaps, according to the Rams’ own Week 3 preview. Los Angeles openly acknowledged the difference between attacking New York’s depleted cornerback room and facing Denver’s All-Pro.

This is not an argument that Surtain completely erases Adams. In fact, Adams has historically performed better against him than most receivers. Their previous matchups have produced 13 Adams receptions on 22 targets for 172 yards and two touchdowns, the most targets, catches, yards and touchdowns any receiver has accumulated against Surtain. That history is one of the reasons this remains a 0.5u prop instead of something larger.

The bet is more specific: can Surtain and Denver keep Adams to five catches or fewer?

That becomes more appealing when considering how Adams has been used in Los Angeles. Even during a 14-touchdown 2025 season, he caught just 60 passes in 14 games. He was often a scoring and intermediate-to-deep receiving weapon rather than a receiver dependent on seven or eight short completions each week. He reached six catches only twice during the entire 2025 regular season.

That distinction matters because Adams can still have an effective night while staying under 5.5 receptions. Four catches for 75 yards and a touchdown would be a productive performance for Los Angeles and still cash this ticket.

The Rams have another way to attack Denver

The Broncos’ defensive profile also gives Sean McVay reason not to force the passing game. Denver enters Sunday ranked 28th in rushing DVOA, while Los Angeles just received 85 rushing yards from Kyren Williams and another 79 from Blake Corum against New York. Stafford said this week that the Rams feel comfortable running virtually anything in the offense with either back on the field.

If Los Angeles can attack Denver on the ground rather than throwing 35 or 40 times into Surtain and the Broncos’ secondary, the overall target pool contracts. That would help the Adams under even with Nacua likely unavailable.

Denver also knows exactly where the Rams want to go if Nacua sits. Last week, no Los Angeles receiver beyond Adams caught more than two passes, while tight end Terrance Ferguson became the secondary passing option. That concentration creates volume risk, but it also makes the defensive assignment obvious: Denver can devote its premier corner and additional attention toward Stafford’s clear No. 1 receiver.

The decision

Pat Bryant Under 2.5 Receptions (+110) — 0.5u

The Bryant play is primarily about target competition. He has four catches through two games, was targeted once despite running 21 routes last week, and now plays in an offense where Waddle and Sutton command the most reliable receiving roles. Getting plus money while needing Bryant to reach three receptions to beat us makes this the cleaner of the two reception unders.

Playable range: I would still play Bryant Under 2.5 down to approximately -110. If a book offers Under 3.5, I would consider it through roughly -150, but I would not pay extreme juice simply to buy the extra reception.

Davante Adams Under 5.5 Receptions (-115) — 0.5u

Adams carries more obvious volume risk because Nacua is doubtful, but the combination of Surtain, Adams’ normal Rams reception profile and Denver’s vulnerability against the run makes 5.5 a number I am willing to fade. Adams stayed at five or fewer catches in 12 of 14 regular-season games last year, and his value in this offense does not require massive reception totals.

Playable range: Adams Under 5.5 is playable through approximately -130. If the market offers Under 6.5, I would consider that alternative through roughly -160, but once the price climbs beyond that I would rather keep the original 5.5 or pass.

Risk check:

Bryant’s primary risk is game script. His only three-plus reception game this season came when Denver fell behind Kansas City and was forced to throw, and another negative script could create enough passing volume for even secondary receivers to accumulate catches. A limited or inactive Mims would also remove one source of competition.

Adams has the more significant risk of the two because Nacua is unlikely to play. Los Angeles showed Monday that it is perfectly willing to funnel targets toward Adams when its other star receiver is unavailable, and the veteran responded with eight catches on 10 targets. His history against Surtain also proves he is capable of winning this matchup rather than simply disappearing because an elite corner is across from him.

Those concerns are why both wagers stay at 0.5u. These are targeted reception fades, not predictions that either receiver will be irrelevant Sunday night.

Pass point

I would pass Bryant once Under 2.5 moves beyond -110 unless a reasonably priced 3.5 becomes available. For Adams, I would stop at approximately -130 on Under 5.5. The edge on both wagers depends on getting a fair price at a threshold that sits above the reception level I expect; there is no reason to chase either under once the market removes that cushion.

Alternative angle

If Bryant Under 2.5 becomes too expensive, the better alternative is Under 3.5 at reasonable juice rather than moving into his yardage market, where one explosive catch can create more volatility.

For Adams, I prefer the reception under to receiving-yard unders. His Week 2 performance showed exactly why: Adams can create enormous yardage on relatively few downfield catches. If 5.5 disappears, Under 6.5 is the cleaner alternative because it keeps the handicap focused on volume rather than trying to predict whether Stafford and Adams connect on one or two explosive plays.

The two props arrive from opposite ends of the usage spectrum, but the thesis is the same. Bryant has not earned enough targets to justify requiring three catches at plus money, while Adams does not need six receptions to remain one of the most dangerous players on the field. Sunday night gives us two ways to fade reception volume without needing either receiver to have a bad game.

Sep 24, 2026·7 min