Sunday Soccer Props: Backing Botheim to Score and Bruno Fernandes to Find the Target

Erik Botheim vs. Lillestrøm

The strongest part of the Botheim case is not the two goals by themselves. It is the involvement that came with them.

Seven shots and five shots on target in his first Viking start tells us he was not living off one isolated finish. He repeatedly found himself at the end of Viking attacks.

That performance also fits why Viking brought him back to Norway. Botheim arrived after scoring 10 goals in 19 league appearances for Malmö, giving Viking another proven central scoring option for the stretch run.

The surrounding attack raises the ceiling further. Viking have scored 51 league goals and have yet to drop a home point this season. This is a side capable of forcing opponents into long defensive stretches and creating repeated penalty-area entries.

Lillestrøm have been respectable rather than disastrous defensively, allowing 26 goals in 20 league matches, but their goalkeeper has already faced 100 shots on target. That is five opponent shots on target per league match.

There is also a scheduling element without needing to exaggerate it. Lillestrøm played in the Europa League on Thursday and now face Viking on Sunday. There is no long-travel narrative to manufacture, but the three-day turnaround is real.

The main question is Botheim’s exact role. Current lineup projections are not unanimous. Some have him starting centrally after the Kristiansund performance, while others still lean toward Viking’s previous forward setup.

Bruno Fernandes vs. Fulham

Bruno’s case is much more straightforward.

Through four Premier League matches he has logged:

**3 shots, 1 SOT vs. Hull City

8 shots, 3 SOT vs. Ipswich

4 shots, 0 SOT vs. Everton

1 shot, 1 SOT vs. Manchester City**

That gives him 16 total shots and five on target, with at least one SOT in three of four league starts.

He has played all 360 league minutes and remains one of Manchester United’s primary attacking connectors around the box. Current lineup projections also have him returning to the starting XI at Craven Cottage after United rotated personnel in the League Cup during the week.

Fulham have not been especially effective at preventing opponents from testing the goalkeeper.

Through four Premier League matches, opponents have produced 54 shots and 18 shots on target against them. That works out to 13.5 shots and 4.5 SOT allowed per game.

Chelsea put six on target. Sunderland produced four. Crystal Palace had five. Even Liverpool, despite being held scoreless, managed three.

For this bet, that last example matters. Fulham do not need to concede for Bruno to cash. United do not even need to play particularly well. One properly directed effort is enough.

That makes this market more forgiving than a goal or score-or-assist prop.

The decision

Erik Botheim Anytime Goal -117 — 0.5u

Botheim gets the scorer look because the combination of proven finishing, immediate shot involvement and Viking’s home attacking environment creates a legitimate path to a goal.

His seven-shot, five-SOT first start is the biggest encouraging sign because it shows the goals came with real volume.

The lineup uncertainty keeps this from moving beyond 0.5u.

Bruno Fernandes 1+ Shot on Target -148 — 0.5u

This is the cleaner projection of the two.

Bruno has recorded a SOT in three of four Premier League matches, continues to carry meaningful shot volume, and faces a Fulham defense allowing 4.5 opponent SOT per league match.

Our model puts his chance of recording at least one shot on target at roughly 72%, comfortably above the probability implied by the current price.

At the current numbers, both are playable.

For Botheim, I would become much less interested if the price moved substantially beyond the current range without confirmation that he is starting.

For Bruno, there is a little more room because of the strength of the projection, but the value naturally becomes thinner as the price moves toward the heavy -160s and beyond.

Risk check: Botheim’s biggest risk is minutes. An appearance from the bench keeps an anytime-goal bet live while reducing his opportunity dramatically. Bruno’s primary risk is shot accuracy rather than volume—he took four shots at Everton without putting one on target. Neither wager requires us to pretend the downside does not exist; that is why both remain 0.5u positions.

Sep 14, 2026·7 min