Wait And See, Three Times Over...

Three Games I’ve Kept An Eye on, And Why They’ve Kept Me On The Fence

Some Saturdays hand you a clean read. This isn’t one of those. Three games worth talking about, and I’ve got a solid amount of uncertainty on all three.

New Mexico at New Mexico State:

This one’s the toughest to just say plainly. The history leans one direction, New Mexico’s owned this rivalry for over a century, 75-35-5 across 115 meetings. But the number’s been moving against the side I’d naturally lean, and I can’t fully shake the instinct that in-state rivalry games play differently than the numbers on paper suggest.

New Mexico’s also without their starting quarterback for the entire season, Jack Layne, a proven 13-game starter last year, gone to a season-ending elbow injury before he ever took a snap in 2026. That’s not a small thing to be laying this many points on. I’m torn on this one, and I’d rather say that plainly than pretend I’ve got a clean answer I don’t.

Oregon At USC:

I lean Oregon here, but I want to be upfront about why I’m not saying it with my chest. Lincoln Riley’s offense is never a unit you write off, and this is exactly the kind of game where one mistake, one missed assignment, one bad read, ends up deciding the whole thing.

The question that matters most for me is Dante Moore. He’s currently sitting 14th nationally among quarterbacks by one current grading measure, which tells you the talent’s there. Whether he wakes up Saturday against a defense and environment like this is the crux of the whole game. Oregon’s own results this year have been wild enough, an outright loss as a 24-point favorite, a win by a much smaller number than expected, then burying a weak Portland State team, that I don’t think anyone should feel locked in on this one. Paper’s got Oregon. I want to see it happen before I trust it.

Texas A&M At LSU:

If you’ve only tuned into Texas A&M this season, here’s where things stand plainly: Marcel Reed has not been good. Current numbers back that up, 26-of-49 for 236 yards with two picks against Kentucky, missing throws he should make, and he’s now 2-4 in games this year where he’s thrown multiple interceptions. Elko’s still publicly backing him, on the record saying the belief hasn’t wavered, but even Elko admitted the same inconsistency showed up again in that loss.

And Elko’s defense, the unit that’s supposed to define this program, hasn’t shown much life lately either. I had a running theory on this going back to when I took Kentucky’s team total over against Alabama, that Kentucky’s offense was underrated, not just overwhelmed. That game didn’t settle it either way, they got smothered, 209 total yards, held to 63 on the ground. But the very next week, that same Kentucky offense went into Kyle Field and looked completely different against A&M, 7.6 yards per play, their quarterback closing the game on 11 straight completions. Same players, same coordinator, two totally different outcomes a week apart. That’s not Kentucky’s offense being inconsistent. That’s A&M’s defense being the variable that changed. I went back and checked both box scores side by side, and the drop-off sits squarely on that side of the ball, not Kentucky’s.

LSU’s got its own version of this problem, plus one extra wrinkle. They just lost to Lane Kiffin’s former team, Ole Miss, in his first game back in Oxford since taking the LSU job. That’s not a loose narrative thread, that’s Kiffin getting beat by the exact program he left. It’s hard for me to believe LSU doesn’t find their way here off that kind of result, a proud program and a proud coach with something to prove. This one’s going to be fun and it’s going to be a physical SEC fight, but I’m not walking in with confidence on either side.

Where Im At

None of these are clean for me, and I’d rather tell you that straight than manufacture some confidence I don’t have. New Mexico’s a coin flip in my gut even with the history pointing one way. Oregon’s the one I lean, but only if Moore shows up. Texas A&M and LSU is the one I trust least of all three, two flawed teams, a coach with something to prove, and a game that could go either way. Watch all three. Bet carefully.