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Three Games I’ve Kept An Eye on, And Why They’ve Kept Me On The FenceSome Saturdays hand you a clean read. This isn’t one of those. Three games worth talking about, and I’ve got a solid…
Will update throughout the week. Live as of 4;07pm central today.Week 4 Report
When Texas Teams Play Texas Teams, Bet The Over And Ask Questions LaterWhen the big Texas programs line up against each other, in conference or out, something in these games just turns…
Mr. Show Me SomethingI said it plainly going in: I don’t trust the guy. Sarkisian’s earned that nickname from me, not something I’m slapping on him for fun. And the numbers don’t just back…
Three Real Plays For This Weekend, Led By The One Where I Actually Disagree With The MarketThe headline number: my own model favors Duke by 15.3. The market’s only got them at 9.5. That’s a…
The math behind The Week Report, updated weekly:Find it here2026 CFB SPREADSHEET Wk. 2
The Red Bandana Game Lands On The 25th Anniversary, And Rutgers Isn’t Just A VisitorThe number: Market has Boston College favored by 3.5. My own model sees this as close to even, actually…
Five Bets, Just Me And A Gut FeelingI want to be upfront about something before I get into these. I didn’t run any of these through my own system first. These are pure feel, years of…
Week 2 LedgerCome Check Out The Ledger^^^I built something I actually want you to open, click around in, and tell me what you think, good or bad.The Ledger is my full weekly matchup…
Three Bets, and I’m Not Hiding From Any of ThemFull transparency up front. Two of these three actually line up with my own system, one of them doesn’t, and I’m telling you that straight…
Not all picks came with their own article, but it doesn’t mean I won’t get to the bottom of each game. Here we have it:SteadyMetricsCFB2026I built this because I love college football more…
The number: Model favors Washington by 10.8 points more than the market already does, on top of a market that already has them favored by over three touchdowns.This is a real, genuine…
A White Out With Real Meaning Behind ItThe number: Model favors West Virginia by 12.9 points more than the market already does, on top of a market that’s already got them at -21.5.This Isn’t…
Alabama’s “Down Year” Still Means A Woodshed Visit Is ExpectedThe number: Model favors Alabama by 21.7 points more than the market already does, a real, significant gap even on top of an…
Boise State @ Oregon: Is the Powerhouse Talk Real?The number: Model favors Oregon by 13.5. 0 of 3 stars, and it’s not just because we’re early in the season. Our model and the real betting…
Update: Akron’s Poffenbarger Situation, and Why It’s a Real UnknownReal news broke on this one, and it’s still not settled as of the last reporting before kickoff. Reese Poffenbarger’s…
The Bet: Texas State/Texas Over 59.5Live line: Over 59.5, -118.Our system doesn’t carry a real totals model yet, so this one leans harder on the actual football than the other three. Worth…
The Bet: Akron +24.5 vs Wake ForestLive line: Akron +24.5, -108. Total sits at 48.5.Our own model: Wake Forest by 14.2. That’s not a small gap either, it’s a 10 point difference between what…
Clemson @ LSU: The Kiffin Era Begins, and It’s Already LoudThe number: Model favors LSU by just 1.3 points — essentially a coin flip. The actual market has LSU favored by more than 10.…
The number: Model favors Oregon by 13.5. 0 of 3 stars, and it’s not just because we’re early in the season. Our model and the real betting market disagree by 11 points here too, which is a…
Ole Miss @ Louisville: The Only Ranked Matchup Week 1 HasThe number: Model favors Ole Miss by 5.6. 1 of 3 stars.Here’s the thing about Week 1. Ninety-something games on the board and exactly…
Texas State @ Texas: A Real Trap Game Hiding in Plain SightThe number: Model favors Texas by 9.2. Market has it closer to 30. 0 of 3 stars — the gap between our model and the real market…