Boise State @ Oregon: Is the Powerhouse Talk Real?

The number: Model favors Oregon by 13.5. 0 of 3 stars, and it’s not just because we’re early in the season. Our model and the real betting market disagree by 11 points here too, which is a real flag worth knowing about before you lean either way.

If you think Oregon looks like a powerhouse this offseason, you’re not alone, but let’s see if that holds up. Boise State isn’t some cupcake they scheduled to pad the record. This is No. 2 Oregon hosting a Boise team that’s the near consensus favorite to win the brand new Pac-12 in its first year in the conference. Both teams think they’re Playoff teams. One of them is about to be right and one of them is about to find out they’re not.

Oregon Just Lost A Piece You Need To Know About

Real injury news right before this one. Jordon Davison, Oregon’s number two running back, broke his collarbone in practice. Multiple reports have him out six to eight weeks, which means he’s a long shot at best for Saturday. That’s not nothing. Davison scored 15 touchdowns last year as the backup, more than anybody else in that backfield. Sophomore Dierre Hill Jr. steps in behind starter Noah Whittington’s old workload, except Whittington’s in the NFL now too, so this is genuinely a different backfield than the one that got Oregon to the Peach Bowl semifinal last year.

Dante Moore’s still back there though, and that matters more than the running back situation probably will. The guy had a shot at the NFL Draft and came back anyway. 3,565 yards, 30 touchdowns last season, and he’s got Evan Stewart back from a season ending injury to throw to. If you’re worried about Oregon’s offense taking a step back, I wouldn’t be. This is still a loaded unit.

One more thing worth knowing on the running back situation, because it’s better than a simple injury replacement story. Hill isn’t just the next man up. PFF graded him the highest true freshman running back performance of any week last season, then gave him an even higher grade, 90.7, in Oregon’s CFP win over James Madison, best of any non quarterback on that offense. Multiple reports had Davison and Hill splitting carries as a real one two punch even before the injury, not a clear starter and backup. Oregon isn’t losing their answer at running back. They’re losing one of two genuinely great ones and rolling with the other. That’s a real downgrade, but it’s a much smaller one than it could have been. Where it does get thin is the depth behind Hill, a transfer and a couple of unproven freshmen, which only becomes a real problem if Hill gets hurt too.

Boise Isn’t Hiding Anything, Except They Kind Of Are

Both teams declined to release a public depth chart for this one, which tells you they’re not trying to give each other anything for free. But Boise’s coach let a few things slip anyway. A true freshman, Rasean Jones, won a starting receiver job. A redshirt freshman beat out a fourth year junior for the starting center spot. That’s real youth stepping into real roles for a team that’s supposed to compete for a conference title in year one somewhere new.

Maddux Madsen’s the guy at quarterback, threw for over 3,000 yards and 23 touchdowns two years ago, dealt with injury last season but the Broncos still went 4-2 in games he played or started. Here’s the number that should worry Boise fans though. Last year, this offense was genuinely two different teams depending on the outcome. In their five losses, they scored seven points in four of them. In their wins, they averaged over 42. There’s no in between with this group. They’re either rolling or they’re getting shut down, and Oregon’s defense is not the opponent you want finding out which version shows up.

Wide receiver Ben Ford’s availability is still up in the air too after a serious injury last October. If he’s not right, that thins out an already unproven receiver room even more.

Where This Actually Lines Up

No stars on this one because we genuinely don’t have the backtested signal yet, this early in the season with almost nobody having played twice. But that doesn’t mean there’s nothing to say. Oregon’s deeper, Oregon’s more proven, and Oregon gets to do this at home in front of a crowd that’s going to be loud from kickoff. Boise’s swagger is real, their coach has this team believing they belong in that Playoff conversation, but this is about as hard a way to open a season as exists. Find out immediately or find out you’re not there yet.

If Boise wins this one, you can stop wondering if they’re for real. If they lose it 42 to 10, that tells you something too.

Confidence sits at 0 stars for two real reasons, not one: neither team has enough current season data for our validated system to weigh in with conviction yet, and our own model disagrees with the actual market number by 11 points. That gap alone is worth being cautious about.