Check The Tide First

Alabama’s “Down Year” Still Means A Woodshed Visit Is Expected

The number: Model favors Alabama by 21.7 points more than the market already does, a real, significant gap even on top of an already lopsided line.

Here’s the thing about Alabama that’s worth knowing before anything else. Last season, they won at Georgia, made the SEC Championship, won a College Football Playoff game, and finished ninth in the country. At almost any other program, that’s a signature season. At Alabama, it’s considered a step back. That’s how you end up with the Tide sitting at No. 13 in the preseason poll, their lowest ranking since 2008, the first time in 18 years they’ve opened a season outside the top 10. Bama’s not rebuilding. Bama’s just not used to being ranked this low, and DeBoer knows it.

New Quarterback, First Career Start

Keelon Russell won a real, competitive camp battle over Austin Mack to replace Ty Simpson, a first-round pick now gone to the NFL. This is Russell’s actual first career start. Alabama’s own site release confirms it plainly, multiple players are set to make their first start in the uniform this week, quarterback being the most obvious one, but also spots on the offensive line and at inside linebacker.

That O-line turnover is real too. Alabama lost a first-round tackle and a fifth-round center from last year’s group, along with two other starters. The run game already struggled in 2025 even with better continuity up front, so this is a real question mark heading in, not just standard roster churn.

Real, confirmed injuries from Alabama’s own depth chart release, wide receiver Noah Rogers, running back AK Dear, and defensive back Jireh Edwards are all expected to miss this game.

East Carolina Has Almost Nothing Left From Last Year

The Pirates return exactly one offensive starter. They lost their quarterback, their top two rushers, and four of their five leading receivers. Their new starting quarterback, Mitch Griffis, is a real, experienced player though, a Texas Tech transfer with 30 career games and a 61% completion rate, so it’s not a total unknown at the most important position. He won the job over a Miami transfer in camp, and East Carolina reportedly isn’t fully closing that competition even after this game.

The problem is what’s around him. Alabama’s defense allowed just 297 total yards and 19.2 points a game last season. That’s an elite unit stepping into a game against a rebuilt offensive line and receiver room with almost no returning continuity.

What It Means…

Alabama’s own coverage has framed this plainly, DeBoer needs a comfortable, clean win here, not a struggle that raises questions about a first-time starter behind a rebuilt line. The real path to that happening is straightforward, Bama’s defense should be good enough on its own to keep this comfortable even if Russell’s debut has some rough patches. There’s also a real, documented situational trend worth knowing, Alabama’s covered in five straight September games. Between the talent gap, the defensive mismatch, and Alabama’s own motivation to make a clean statement early, this sets up as one of the more lopsided results on the board, personal feelings about the program aside.